Response to Gina and Kelsey

Gina- It was Michigan- a historically dem state (went for the Dems the last 4 times, and Obama has a large lead) that he pulled out of not Minnesota. However, it looks like he should also pull out of Minnesota (which seems to vote for the dems all the time). A poll just put him down by 18 points.

In response, that McCain had no chance a year and half ago isn't exactly correct. There are three reasons why McCain was able to beat the odds last time and isn't going to happen this time (in at least PA)

1)There were many staunch conservatives in the race(Jim Gilmore, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, Mitt Romney, and Tom Tancredo) with only Rudy Giuliani and John McCain considered as moderates. McCain was initially down, but when Giuliani campaign collapsed (one of the worst campaigns run in US history), most of the votes went to the remaining moderate, McCain. Why was McCain able to beat the other people on the ticket- pure numbers. The cummalitive rest of the candiates had more support than McCain, however, they had similar views and therefore had to split the vote. This is why McCain has trouble with the base who did not want him.

Now there is only 2 choices. Obama or McCain- no 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th candidates to sway voters with similar ideals.

2)If you look at the undecided vote, during the primary there was a very large percentage of undecided votes. However, most people have made up their mind recent polls show. As of now, only 2% of remaining voters remain undecided. With a 10% lead there is little you can do.

3)Historically candidates in presidential  races this far down almost always lose. There is three recent comeback elections. The most recent has to be Gore/Lieberman who came back 6 points nationally in the final month only to lose. Ford/Dole came back 20 points in the last 2 months only to you know what ... lose. The only one to surprise America and win was Truman/Barkley who beat Dewey by 4 points.  How did this happen, Dewey became so far ahead, they stopped polling. Today polls come out every day from every media source, so this isn't going to happen this time. (The media actually so badly called this election, that the Tribune declared Dewey the winner, after the votes had been counted.) Looking back at previous elections the chance of him winning the state is 10% at best. Is it worth spending millions which might only give him another 20% chance on winning on the cost of loosing in must win states. Absolutely not. If these battle ground states remain even, I can assure you that Barack Obama will win. I don't think people understand that McCain must win all 8 states that Bush won in '04. Right now there is a 50-50 chance (rather generous since Obama is leading in 6 of the 8 states) that McCain will win those states. Using those odds there is only 0.39% chance of McCain sweeping all those states. If McCain runs a broad campaign these chance will remain. However, if McCain focuses on 'the Bush 8' states, he'll increase his odds of winning dramatically. In other words, campaign in states where you don't have a huge handicap to overcome.