Pennsylvania Politics

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Sarah Palin = Dan Quayle

I just saw the interview of Palin with Katie Curic and have to say it is one of the saddest I have ever seen. Nothing she said was impressive, and most of the things she did say showed she no knowledge on the issues, and has no business as being vice president. It looked like someone fed talking points down her throat a day before, yet she didn't know what any of it meant.

I would expect that the campaign will no longer let her talk to press after this -possibly even Conservative radio hosts.

I would definitely be fearful if she became president. Even though I think she if smart, she is simply uninformed, and as John McCain reminds us, "This is not a time for on the job training."

The full interview (Part 1):

Part 2:

I think Jack Cafferty sums it up the best:

Obama leading in national polls and many key battleground states; Analysis of debate and ads

Obama is leading in PA polls by 5 points and is now leading in VA polls. He has improved in all states and is even close in NC now.

I found both McCain and Obama to be strong in the debate last night. However, it was far from perfect. Obama should have been more of his time discussing the current state of the economy instead of taxes and earmarks, which is what Americans wanted to hear about, and was suppose to be a strong point with him (at least according to the polls). McCain seemed argumentative at times, and his body language seemed peculiar and sometimes bordering on disrespectful. McCain seemed to give this smirk every so often that reminded me of Gore fatal sighs of the 2000 campaign (though this has not been picked up by the mass media as of yet- we'll see what SNL is able to do tonight).

Overall, I would call it a tie, therefore giving the edge to Obama since he is ahead in most of the polls.

As of the ads- McCain decided to do an ad on how much Obama agrees with him and then concludes this will not make him a good leader (irony at its greatest). I really can't see why this will hurt Obama, as I think America wants bipartisan. In addition, he often agreed on the problem, yet differed on the method toward the solution. We have gone over this plenty in class. Both sides believe that Crime, terror, and depression are all bad, however, both sides have different proposals on how to solve these issues.

Obama's ad was alright. He claimed that John McCain never mentioned the middle class in the debate. Obama tried to tie this in with the economy crisis. The economy is a key issue among most Americans, and even though Obama didn't talk about, it gives the appearance that he is stronger on the issue. It looks like this ad was prepared days in advance as these words were plucked into his arguments, in hopes McCain wouldn't mention it. Maybe it was a strategy that Obama did not talk about the economy as he is no expert, it would sound complicated and elitist, and McCain could not mention the economy. More fodder for ads.

McCain post debate ad:
This was on the web before the debate even ended...Wow how many people do they have on their ad staff. Also do these guys ever talk about McCain or do they think they can only bash Obama.

Obama post debate ad:
This ad needs more pizazz. They need to hire somebody from the McCain group.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

New never fail poll released!!

According to a Philadelphia NBC Television affiliate, WCAU, a Philadelphia area bakery in Willow Grove, PA has developed its own system that has yet to fail in terms of picking the presidential candidates. They have made batches upon batches of butter cookies with pictures of each candidate. Bakery customers effectively cast their votes by buying the cookies of one candidate or the other. The story has gained national acclaim as Pennsylvania is one of the fierce battleground states and any new news from it has suddenly become thrust into the spot light.
the link for the news video can be found here:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4429957/.
Matt Breitbart

Labels:

McCain taking Hilary voters and leading?

Recent polls in PA have shown that about 35% of former Hilary supporters are now McCain supporters. This number is about 20% across 13 states that they polled in. Perhaps this is showing that McCain's choice of Palin is definitely helping him attract the Hilary voters.

This poll also found that McCain has about 46% of the vote and Obama 41% in PA. Could this be the year that PA goes back to being Red? Perhaps.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Big 10 poll, Commercials, & Open Letter to AIG

A Big 10 Battleground poll released on 9/17 of 600 Registered Voters has McCain and Obama exactly tied. However, this poll was conducted from 9/5-9/17, and was therefore before the present economy slide and bank failures. No questions asked were specifically related to the economy, but it did reveal that 2.4% of people polled (+/- 4%) think the federal government can be trusted to do what is right.

86% of those polled agreed that public schools should provide information to students about birth control and STDs, compared to 11% disagreeing. Being that McCain/Palin and Obama/Biden are statistically tied according to this poll, it seems as if Palin's reputation for abstinence-only education, and McCain's support of it is not of primary concern to the PA voters.

In national news, two commercials were released on Wednesday, one from each camp. McCain's was rather straightforward, using traditional political language; promising to "fix Washington" and "the greed" of Wall Street, because hes "taken on tougher guys than this before", and it's hard to argue with his policies with his quick, flashy cuts and dramatic background music. Obama's is quite different - Straightforward and simple, with only Obama speaking on the economy alone for 2 minutes, this clocks in as mildly informative, and slightly sleep-inducing but does show a huge difference in the candidate's view of their constituency. Obama's style lends itself to elitism, but not in an over the top way, rather, he seems to think of them as smarter, and able to digest his policies and opinions without the flash of McCain's ad.

TODAY'S OPEN LETTER:
Dear AIG,
Sorry to hear about your economic woes! Here's a $85 billion gift! Don't spend it all in one place!
- U. S. Taxpayer

Friday, September 19, 2008

The Sarah Palin Defect

And possibly costing McCain the election...Absurdity...No
Would you ever believe Joe Biden is more favorable than Sarah Palin. Well I can't claim that. However, the numbers are very close (within 2 points), yet Palin is viewed unfavorable by a margin of 3:2 over Biden. Simply most people don't know much about Biden.

Click on the pic for more detail
Why has Palin been a bad pick? Clearly she has polarized the base, and the pickup McCain received was from the base. However, how many of them would have voted for McCain anyway. Probably at least half of them. Yet, because she is considered far right, and is considered to have little to no experience, McCain has lost the most precious part of the electorate, the independents. The Ny Times poll shows that most people believe Palin was only chosen because it would help McCain win, not because she was well qualified. Biden on the other hand was seem qualified according to the pollsters. Barak Obama picked up 8 points in the moderate category while McCain lost 3 points. This is going to really hurt McCain in the battle ground states.


Monday, September 15, 2008

There's Something about Palin


It's now been two weeks since John McCain's announcement of Sarah Palin joining the Republican ticket as Vice President, and they have been arguably the two best weeks for the McCain campaign thus far. There have been numerous attacks regarding her radical views, her experience, her past actions, her pregnant daughter, and even her femininity, but nothing seems to be sticking and she has emerged unscathed where many politicians would have crumbled. So, we must acknowledge that there is just something about Palin, but what? Let's take a look at all of these attacks.

First, many liberals are terrified by what they view as her radical views, from her views on gun control to her strong stance against abortion. Many point to these views and expect that all listeners will be shocked and terrified - but when it comes down to it, Palin was never selected to attract the independent or liberal vote. She is here to excite the Republican base, who have up to this point had limited excitement and borderline distrust of McCain - and it's working. Palin has managed to rally together and rouse Republicans in a way that no Republican candidate has in a long time. (Don't believe us? Go watch the footage of the Republican Nation Convention and tell us the last time you saw that many Republicans standing and screaming just at them mention of a name.) Liberals often seem to forget that a huge portion of the country, mostly found in rural areas, agree with most of Palin's views and are happy to see these viewpoints are important to the McCain campaign. Leave attracting the independents to McCain, who has a strong bi-partisan record (and is oft heard claiming so.) At the end of the day, she would just be vice president, and would have even less influence on policies made by Congress than the President - so any question if she is too radical is a moot point.

Palin's biggest weakness in the eyes of her critics is her lack of experience, and she is constantly being questioned on how she would be prepared to be President should something happen to McCain. Frankly, this criticism is ridiculous given she has about the same amount of experience as the TOP of the ticket of the other side, so what option do we have but to risk having a President with little experience. At least for Palin it's a chance for it, rather than a guarantee on the Obama side. Further, her experience is as a Governor, an actual executive position and the most closely parallel position to President as one can find in the US government, versus both McCain and Obama, who have all legislative experience. The Obama campaign just can't push this point to much as it brings light to the lack of Obama's own experience.

A more vague series of attacks has focused on some of Palin's past decisions. Most recently is the question of whether or not she crossed the line when she fired the police commissioner, arguably because he refused to fire a police officer whom also happened to be divorcing Palin's sister. Turns out the fellow isn't fired after all though, so this story is already on its way to a silent grave. Others have focused on her past actions that seem to encourage pork, as opposed to her proclaimed stance against reform. But in a campaign that has become all about character, and nothing about anything else, no one seems to be paying attention to any of it - and nothing has been solid enough to truly gain ground. So once again, she has come out unscathed.

One of the possibly most ridiculous criticisms of Palin has been that her 17 year old daughter is unwed and pregnant. Many democrats seemed to clap in glee when this news surfaced, assuming this would alienate her from her conservative Republican base, particularly the Evangelicals. However the Democrats seem to have underestimated the Republican's sense of family, and that many people against sex outside of marriage still have compassion for those who flounder, as many of their own sons and daughters have fought through the same issues, and admire Palin for not abandoning her daughter and sacrificing her for her own political gains. Further, since news came out that Palin's daughter is going to marry the father of the baby, many Republican's consider this extreme circumstance as well handled, and think it shows Palin as a compassionate and good mother.

One of the first questions on every minds since the selection of Governor Palin is "Will she take the female Clinton supporters away from the Democrats?" The resounding response from Democrats is that no, she will not since she is on th opposite side of many of the issues from Hilary. Yet polls seem to suggest that she is drawing women to a party that traditionally struggles with the women vote. (More evidence that this race is less about issues and more about the character of those running.) It is true, Palin has the established feminists in an outrage. At least one feminist has been heard to say that "If Palin wins, this will be a step backwards for women everywhere." But why is there such a difference between what the establishments are saying and the polls? The truth is in many rural areas the feminist movement has lost favor, and being called a feminist is more of an insult than compliment. Many women are tired of being made to feel bad for having any traditionally feminine attributes. Many women feel looked down upon for not having a career and staying home. They feel true equality is having a choice, not being forced to stay home or to have to have a career. Women who sacrifice for their family encounter much of the same attitude. Palin has been criticized for talking about her family so much, to the point of being defined as "The Hockey Mom", and feel this is a tragedy for the view or women today. But this is in itself not fair. Michelle Obama spent an entire hour at the DNC talking about how family was central to the Obamas, and Obama himself came on and had a heartwarming conversation with his two daughters on stage, and has said over and over that his family means the world to him. So why is it ok for the male candidate to talk about his family, but not the woman candidate? Is this equality? Women are GLAD to see a woman succeed without having to give up who she is. Women want to be able to be women, and still succeed, rather than having to conform to a certain view of a woman. How is having to conform to what one group of women say a women should be any more free than having to be what a man says? Both remove the choice from the women to control their own lives. To them Palin is a champion that they haven't seen in many years, if at all. She is a good mom, beautiful, has a successful career, and is making a real difference out there. To them this is a women they want their daughters to look up to, not someone who has conformed. This entire concept seems to be missing in the understanding of critics everywhere.

Yet none of this seems to amount to the revitalization she has brought to the McCain campaign. What has caused such a drastic change to a race that seemed hardly a race at all just a few short weeks ago. Perhaps it comes down to one thing pointed our by Sean Sutton, an American Politics professor at Rochester Institute of Technology: "Sarah Palin has the unique ability to look straight into the camera, wrinkle her nose just so, and kick Obama right in the groin." And she gets away with it.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Presidential Forum is a great success, new poll for PA voters too

Last night CNN hosted a major Presidential Forum in New York City at Columbia University which was sponsored by Service Nation and TIME Magazine. Both John McCain and Barak Obama were there, albeit interviewed seperately. However, both candidates did share a few moments and a handshake and kind remarks during the switch in the interviews. Yesterday being the 7th annivarsary of September 11th, both candidates visited the World Trade Center site and John McCain visited the crash site of the United Flight 93 in Shanksville, PA. While there he attended the memorial service there for those victims.

A new poll, from RCP average, which polled PA voters showed McCain closing the gap in that state. Voters who were polled between 9/5 and 9/9 showed Obama ahead by only 2.3%, 47.3 to 45.

All polls for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania can be found here on the real Clear Politics Website,
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html#polls


Posted by Matt Breitbart

Labels:

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Third party candidates may make a difference in PA

Polls in PA show that Obama currently has about 47% and McCain 45%. It also shows larger third-party candidates taking about 1% each. For example Bob Barr, a Libertarian candidate, is one of those others who has 1%. Because of Barr's stance it would appear he is taking votes away from McCain, as are most others. Because of how close the Obama-McCain race is becoming it would be wise for PA residents to rally behind either Obama or McCain. Voting for a third-party at this point in time might mean a loss by only a very slim margin.

In the past it is usually the Democratic party that seems to be fractured and at the whim of the third-party candidates. Although still very close, it's time for the Republicans and others with similar interests (Libertarians and others) to ensure McCain gets all the support he can get.

Reference: http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=6593055145340653217&postID=88070091720850808

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Keystonepolitics.com

Found a great blog about PA. It really shows what PA cares about. As this is a blog, it has lots of commentary/bias views, however, you can click on the link to get the full article/source.

http://www.keystonepolitics.com/
-Sam

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

New poll...interesting results


A new poll of the presidential election in PA came out yesterday by Rasmussen/Fox News. The poll shows Obama up by 2 points over McCain with a error of +/-4.5% (so 9% total with 95% CI). Though there is more error in this poll than others, it is the smallest gain for Obama in 3 1/2 months from 10 different polls. 

Several others interesting facts were mentioned in the poll; they listed the economy as the most important issue among voters (as highlighted in my previous post), with national defense coming in a distant second.  Historically Dems have been more trusted with the economy, while the GOP for national defense. This is somewhat peculiar given the current slide by Obama.

Also very interesting is that McCain is considered more favorable than Obama. To me this doesn't make too much sense, as McCain is often a boring speaker, has little charisma, and is seen to be out of touch with today's youth. On the other hand, Obama seems to give the opposite impression. However, recent negative adds by McCain might have reversed this personality of Obama - or at least made the public believe he is a light weight. Not surprising Palin got the highest favorability ratings. As a self-described 'hockey mom', she seems down to earth and a true Washington outsider, which seems to resonate well with the people of Pennsylvania. Her good looks as well as reasonable speaking ability doesn't hurt either.

A worry some number for Obama was that of the 9% of undecided voters, the majority were democrats. Even worse only 74% of Dems support Obama. Considering how partisan politics is today, this is a dismal number for Obama. These poor showings could be attributed to disgruntled Clinton supporters as she did well in the state. If these people stay home it could spell trouble for Obama. However, if he is able to unite the party in the state, he should win handly.  

Monday, September 8, 2008

Pennsylvania's 11th District


Today we are taking a more local look at Pennsylvania's 11th District, where 24 year democratic incumbent Representative Paul Kanjorski is battling against Republican Mayor Lou Barletta.  Barletta lost against Kanjorski back in 2002, but due to his recent radical measures taken against illegal immigrants in his mayorship, which drew national attention, and a good deal of money pooring in from the national Republican Party, the race which was originally thought to be no contest is turning into a race after all. Real Clear Politics now lists the race as a dead heat and a member of the "Top 25 Competitive Congressional Races". In fact, Barletta is using a tactic frequently heard these days against his own party. Barletta argues that since Kanjorski has been in office for 12 terms now, he can't possibly be expected to bring about the change that the people have been clamoring for. This call for change is not only a concern for the presidential race, but has become a real issue in local races. Everywhere people are screaming for change, so for nearly any candidate, a clear plan for change will be key in their success - and we see the direct effect of that. Everywhere candidates are talking about change. Change. Change. Change.  But what does that word really mean? Change could mean anything from better healthcare to despotism. (Yes, one candidate couldn't do this, but the gorvernment taken as a whole could.)  If both paries are shouting they are for change on both sides, and neither are really explaining how their administration would be different then recent administrations in any significant manner, does this issue really matter? Should it matter?

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Obama Emphasize Economy In Trip to PA


Barack visits PA on Friday. (The Philadelphia Inquirer)
Obama and his running mate, Biden, visited Duryea, PA on Friday. Duryea is a small town located between Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. Possibly the campaign was trying to get hometown support, as Biden is originally from Scranton. Duryea is in the heart of PA, which consists of mainly blue collar workers. History has shown that manufacturing jobs are the first to layoff in a poor economy (however they are the first ones to come back). With the disappointing unemployment numbers just released, showing over 80,000 jobs cut in August and over half million for the year, Obama discussed his plans to turn the economy around. Obama showed compassion for their plight, which could give a boost - even though the economy is fickle and the executive has a minimized role, compared to other issues.

Overall, Obama seemed to get the right issue, and should keep the economy the number 1 issue for PA. This is an issue that affects most in Pennsylvania, espically rural communites and Pittsburgh, which is generally Republican.

Labels: , ,

Friday, September 5, 2008

Obama in Pennsylvania

Obama has spent the last two days campaigning in Pennsylvania, sending out Hillary Clinton and other prominent female supporters to other swing states to counter the effects of Palin's speech the night before.

Today Obama visited a glass factory in PA, focusing on the economy:

"Today's jobs report is a reminder of what's at stake in this election," Obama said. "John McCain showed last night he is intent on continuing the economic policies that just this year have caused the American economy to lose 605,000 jobs....John McCain's answer is more of the same: $200 billion in tax cuts to big corporations and oil companies, and not one dime of tax relief to more than 100 million middle-class families."

Obama also heavily criticized the lack of mention of the econony in the Repulican National Convention.  Speaking of the convention, while Obama campaigned in Pennsylvania, McCain gave his acceptance speech on Thursday night, which has been largely viewed as bipartisan and much mroe focused on details than the other speakers.  Also of note Thursday was a speech from Cindy McCain, who usually only speaks a few words introducing her husband, and the official nomination of Governor Palin.



Palin at the Republican National Convention

This week Governor Palin spoke at the Republican nomination - the first exposure to her for many Americans. For many right-wing Republicans Palin seems a godsend, or at least some assurance that McCain does value the Republican base. Moreover, she gave a speech with a charisma that McCain has oft been criticized for lacking, and was able to rouse the audience to an excitement more frequently seen in democratic then republican crowds of late.  Perhaps Palin will provide the excitement needed to start moving the base, but with so few watching the convention, will it really help draw those independents needed to pull ahead of Obama?

Thursday, September 4, 2008

RealClearPolitics Link

RealClearPolitics gives the most update polls per state. They also have odds on which candidate will win the state. Currently Barack Obama has 78-22 advantage.  Obama also has an average of a 5 point lead. 

I also posted the link on the links area.

-Sam

Labels: